Situation:

The Vice Provost and Associate Vice President, Faculty Planning, was seeking analytical support for the Campus Vision 2050 project. Campus Vision 2050 will result in a long-term land use plan, ensuring the future direction for the Vancouver campus considers the diverse perspectives of the Musqueam and UBC community, and addresses the anticipated infrastructure needs of the future.

Our Actions:

• Researched and analyzed provincial, national (out-of-province), and international population projections
• Developed a scenario modeling tool to forecast enrollment which takes into account the following variables:
  • Student enrolment and projected growth rates
  • Application rates by defined age range
  • Shifts in admit rates
• Prepared an executive-level presentation of the modeling approach and results for distribution

Results:

• SDS developed a multi-variable long-range enrollment forecasting tool, linked to data gathered from BC Stats, Statistics Canada, and the United Nations
• SDS identified the required enrolment growth to meet stipulated aspirational targets, assessing how much could be serviced through population change
• SDS provided an assessment on shifts in population demographics to consider in future, and potential impacts on the flow of domestic and international students to UBC