Situation:

The sudden and unprecedented impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) created unique and critical planning challenges for UBC. SDS, in direct partnership with Planning and Institutional Research (PAIR), was engaged by the Provost’s Office to understand:

• To what extent might COVID-19 disrupt the delivery of academic programming and for how long?
• What might the financial impact of this disruption be to UBC?
• What corresponding mitigation strategies could be deployed to offset the financial impact?

Our Actions:

• Articulated three overarching enrolment scenarios, largely characterized by the mode of program delivery in each academic term of the fiscal year
• Consulted with key subject matter experts in admissions & recruitment, Graduate Studies, and Faculties to develop a more fulsome understanding of enrolment impact
• Devised an enrolment and tuition revenue model for each scenario, with drivers at the institution, campus, and Faculty level
• Identified key mitigation strategies with stakeholders, and estimated the impact on enrolment and tuition revenue

Results:

• Scenario impact assessment that directly supported Executive, Board and Faculty leadership-level key decision making
• Broad participation across UBC, including all Faculties, in planning efforts ensured greater degree of support for findings
• Enhanced information sharing across campuses and units
• Model and templates for further analysis

"SDS and PAIR's collaboration on scenario modeling was a key part of UBC's planning efforts in response to the challenges posed by COVID-19. The scenarios allowed us to 'face the music' about what might lie ahead."

-Andrew Szeri, Provost and Vice-President Academic